+38 or +40.
+38 - the wheel and tire is more outside the car
+40 - the wheel and tire is more inside the car
with a 195 tire, either of these will work.
I currently have a 205-55-15 with 15x6.5 + 38 and I am rubbing the rear tires (on the fender vs outer tire wall) when I have passengers OR when the car dips.
If you downgrade to 195-50-15 the 195-50 is going to be: shorter and narrower so I'm fairly confident no matter how much the car dips no rubbing should happen.